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在越南的论坛主讲:美国遏制中国政策必败

王文 人大重阳 2024-01-27

2023年11月10日,越南外交学院协同越南社会科学院、德国康拉德· 阿登纳基金会、越南东海研究基金会在越南河内举办“国际中国学论坛”。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文受邀与各国学者一同探讨中国在全球治理中发挥的作用,引发热烈反响。以下为完整版中英文发言视频及内容:

中国的角色还远远不只经济增长的贡献,还在于中国对全球经济体系的改革、国家经济增长经验的供给以及全球化持续的拯救这三点更重要的贡献。

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感谢邀请。主办方给我设定了这个主题“中国参与国际经济机制”。我想,就中国在全球经济机制中的角色讲三点看法。

正如我们所有人都承认的,中国对世界经济增长发挥了积极作用。过去十多年,中国为世界经济增长贡献了30%的增量。但我想,中国的角色还远远不只经济增长的贡献,还在于中国对全球经济体系的改革、国家经济增长经验的供给以及全球化持续的拯救这三点更重要的贡献。

请允许我简要论述。


第一,中国是国际经济体系的改革者。

中国一直都批评不公平的国际经济、金融与贸易体系,但中国不愿做革命者。中国试着通过和平、协商、合作的方式对国际经济体系进行改革。中国推出“一带一路”,通过与150多个国家的合作,在过去十年提供了全球50%以上的重大基础设施建设,与中国进行“一带一路”合作的国家双边贸易年均增长6.8%,是世界贸易平均增长的2倍。

中国还构建亚洲基础设施投资银行,签署RCEP,在国内建立20多个自贸区,对外援助贷款,推动人民币国际化,促进G20、金砖国家合作,推动低碳发展,让国际经济体系变得更公平、更合理。


第二,中国是经济增长新经验的提供者。

过去,多数发展中国家都信奉“华盛顿共识”,但中国经济增长的成功为许多发展中国家提供了新的经验。比如,“要致富,先修路”是一条很有中国特色的经验。再比如,“重视制造业的发展”,追求 “有为政府与有效市场的统一”都是新的中国经验。许多亚洲、非洲国家都在学习甚至复制中国模式,吸引中国投资,运用中国经验。比如,埃塞俄比亚就被称为“非洲的中国”。

可惜,中国经济增长的经验,在西方经济学中并没有被充分重视。我常常讲,谁要是能研究好中国经济增长的新经验,谁就有可能成为诺贝尔经济学奖。


第三,中国已是全球经济合作的拯救者。

过去几年,美国对中国发动贸易战、科技战,采取“小院高墙”的政策,特朗普时期还退出多项国际机制与条约。近两年,乌克兰、以色列等多个地区发生战争,导致粮食危机、难民危机。美国滥用制裁,导致国际金融体系的动荡。经济全球化受到自二战以来最大的挑战,有人甚至认为,全球化死了。但中国则在拯救经济全球化。

一个有趣的例子是,在10月份,中国在“一带一路”论坛上宣布1060亿美元的新增贷款,而美国则宣布1060亿美元的对乌克兰、以色列的军事援助。中国花钱在推动建设与发展,而美国花钱在推动战争与破坏。

这些年,美国遏制中国的政策是失败的,包括发动贸易战、科技战都失败了。现在,美国每天都在对中国发动了意识形态战争、媒体战争、舆论战争,唱衰中国经济,认为中国崛起已顶峰了,甚至认为中国在衰落。

或许,许多年以后,世界历史教科书会这么评价西方的一些著名报纸或期刊:他们关于中国经济的报道充满着荒谬与谎言。他们低估了中国经济的韧性与贡献。

这也正是我想要表达的一些看法。再次感谢邀请。

以下为英文版

China, the New Leader of the Global Economy

By Wang Wen

Thank you for having me. The organizer has set me the topic of "China's Engagement in International Economic Institutions”. I would like to make three observations on China's role in the global economic mechanism.

As we all acknowledge, China has played a positive role in world economic growth. Over the past decade, China has contributed a 30% increase to world economic growth. But I think China's role is far from just the contribution of economic growth, but also lies in China's more important contributions to the reform of the global economic system, the supply of national economic growth experience, and the continuous rescue of globalization.

Allow me to talk about them briefly.

Firstly, China is a reformer of the international economic system.

China has always criticized the unfair international economic, financial, and trading system, but it is unwilling to be a revolutionary. China is trying to reform the international economic system through peace, consultation, and cooperation. China launched the "the Belt and Road", and through cooperation with more than 150 countries, it has provided more than 50% of the world's major infrastructure construction in the past decade. The bilateral trade of countries that have "the Belt and Road" cooperation with China has increased by 6.8% annually, twice the average growth of world trade.

China has also established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, signed RCEP, established over 20 free trade zones domestically, provided foreign aid loans, promoted the internationalization of the RMB, promoted cooperation of the G20 and BRICS countries, promoted low-carbon development, and made the international economic system more fair and reasonable.

Secondly, China is a provider of new experiences in economic growth.

In the past, most developing countries believed in the "Washington Consensus," but the success of China's economic growth has provided new experiences for many developing countries. For example, 'To become rich, build roads first' is a very Chinese characteristic experience. For another example, 'valuing the development of the manufacturing industry' and pursuing the unity of a promising government and an effective market are all new Chinese experiences. Many Asian and African countries are learning and even complex the Chinese model, attracting Chinese investment and utilizing Chinese experience. For example, Ethiopia is known as the "China of Africa".

Unfortunately, the experience of China's economic growth has not been fully valued in Western economics. I often say that whoever can study the new experience of China's economic growth well has the possibility of becoming the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Thirdly, China has become the savior of economic globalization.

In the past few years, the United States has launched trade war and high-tech war against China, adopting a policy of "small courtyards and high walls". During the Trump administration era, the US also withdrew from multiple international mechanisms and treaties.

In the past two years, military wars have occurred in many regions such as Ukraine and Israel, leading to food crises, refugee crises. The abuse of sanctions by the US has led to instability in the international financial system. Economic globalization has faced the biggest challenge since World War II, and some even believe that globalization is dead. But China is rescuing economic globalization.

An interesting example is that in October, China announced $106 billion in new financial loans at the Belt and Road Forum, while the US announced $106 billion in military assistance to Ukraine and Israel. China spends money to promote development and construction, while the US spends money to promote war and destruction.

In recent years, the US policy of containing China has failed, including launching trade wars and high-tech wars. Nowadays, the US has launched ideological wars, media wars, and public opinion wars against China every day, criticizing the Chinese economy and believing that China's rise has reached its peak, even thinking that China is declining.

Perhaps a lot of years later, world history textbooks will evaluate some notorious Western newspapers or journals in this way: their reports on the Chinese economy are full of absurdity and lies. They underestimated the resilience and contribution of the Chinese economy.

This is also some of the views I want to express.

Thank you again for the invitation.


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// 人大重阳    

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RDCY

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)成立于2013年1月19日,是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。


作为中国特色新型智库,人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员,旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前,人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来,人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。






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